Circulating
Cartoon cameo // Mayor Chow? as a pumpkin outside City Hall, spider climbing the tower

City Hall // Issue 01 · October 2026 · Halloween Edition // checked Sun 4 Oct 2026

City Hall.

Toronto politics and the stories that run through it, explained plainly. Where there's a debate, you get both sides and the sources.

The race for mayor

vote Mon 26 Oct
16 / 16published polls since December that Chow has led
48.8–39.0Chow vs Bradford, average of the last five polls (a 9.8-point lead)
4 for 4Toronto mayors who ran for re-election since amalgamation and won
49 / 45Chow's approval vs disapproval, latest Liaison poll (was 52 / 42)
Every published poll since December: Chow vs Bradford
Olivia ChowBrad Bradford
Tory / Ford also polled0%20%40%60%JanMarMayJulSepLiaison, 21 Dec 2025: Bradford 16% · Tory 35Liaison, 2 Feb 2026: Bradford 18% · Tory 33Mainstreet, 22 Feb 2026: Bradford 17% · Tory 34Liaison, 8 Mar 2026: Bradford 26% · Ford 16Pallas, 8 Mar 2026: Bradford 26% · Ford 21Liaison, 13 Apr 2026: Bradford 35%Liaison, 10 May 2026: Bradford 37%Mainstreet, 15 Jun 2026: Bradford 38%Liaison, 29 Jun 2026: Bradford 40%Liaison, 25 Jul 2026: Bradford 41%Forum, 29 Jul 2026: Bradford 32%Liaison, 4 Aug 2026: Bradford 40% · Alexander 10Liaison, 15 Aug 2026: Bradford 38% · Alexander 11Pallas, 20 Aug 2026: Bradford 39% · Alexander 8Liaison, 4 Sep 2026: Bradford 39% · Alexander 10Liaison, 30 Sep 2026: Bradford 39% · Alexander 10Bradford 39%Liaison, 21 Dec 2025: Chow 39% · Tory 35Liaison, 2 Feb 2026: Chow 40% · Tory 33Mainstreet, 22 Feb 2026: Chow 43% · Tory 34Liaison, 8 Mar 2026: Chow 44% · Ford 16Pallas, 8 Mar 2026: Chow 44% · Ford 21Liaison, 13 Apr 2026: Chow 46%Liaison, 10 May 2026: Chow 50%Mainstreet, 15 Jun 2026: Chow 44%Liaison, 29 Jun 2026: Chow 49%Liaison, 25 Jul 2026: Chow 49%Forum, 29 Jul 2026: Chow 47%Liaison, 4 Aug 2026: Chow 47% · Alexander 10Liaison, 15 Aug 2026: Chow 49% · Alexander 11Pallas, 20 Aug 2026: Chow 50% · Alexander 8Liaison, 4 Sep 2026: Chow 50% · Alexander 10Liaison, 30 Sep 2026: Chow 48% · Alexander 10Chow 48%
Show the poll table
DateFirmChowBradfordAlso
21 Dec 2025Liaison39%16%Tory 35
2 Feb 2026Liaison40%18%Tory 33
22 Feb 2026Mainstreet43%17%Tory 34
8 Mar 2026Liaison44%26%Ford 16
8 Mar 2026Pallas44%26%Ford 21
13 Apr 2026Liaison46%35%
10 May 2026Liaison50%37%
15 Jun 2026Mainstreet44%38%
29 Jun 2026Liaison49%40%
25 Jul 2026Liaison49%41%
29 Jul 2026Forum47%32%
4 Aug 2026Liaison47%40%Alexander 10
15 Aug 2026Liaison49%38%Alexander 11
20 Aug 2026Pallas50%39%Alexander 8
4 Sep 2026Liaison50%39%Alexander 10
30 Sep 2026Liaison48%39%Alexander 10

Early Bradford numbers are lower because John Tory or Doug Ford was also polled. Dates are fieldwork midpoints; the 30 Sep Liaison poll is dated by publication. Source: Wikipedia · Toronto Life

Who is Olivia Chow

Chow arrived in Toronto from Hong Kong at 13 and has spent most of her adult life in its politics: school trustee, then 14 years on Metro and city council for the downtown wards, then eight years as the NDP MP for Trinity–Spadina. Her partner in all of it was Jack Layton, the councillor-turned-NDP-leader she married in 1988. In 2011 Layton took the party to 103 seats and Official Opposition for the first time, then died of cancer that August.

Her first run for mayor, in 2014, started as the front-runner's campaign. She led July polls at 40%, then faded to third behind John Tory and Doug Ford. Nine years later she won the 2023 by-election with 37.17%, beating Ana Bailão, and took office in July 2023.

  1. 1957

    Born 24 March in British Hong Kong

  2. 1970

    Moves to Toronto, age 13

  3. 1985–91

    Toronto Board of Education trustee

  4. 1988

    Marries Jack Layton, then a Toronto city councillor

  5. 1992–2006

    Metro Toronto, then City of Toronto councillor, downtown and Trinity–Spadina

  6. 2006–14

    NDP MP for Trinity–Spadina

  7. 2011

    Layton leads the NDP to 103 seats and Official Opposition for the first time; he dies 22 August

  8. 2014

    Runs for mayor; leads July polls at 40%, finishes third with 23.2%

  9. 2023

    Wins the June by-election with 37.17%; sworn in 12 July as Toronto's 66th mayor

  10. 2026

    Seeks a full term on 26 October

Read: Wikipedia · Wikipedia · Wikipedia

Chow and the Fords

Rob Ford. In 2014 Chow ran to replace him. As he returned to City Hall from rehab that June, she said: “Substance abuse is a disease, and he is sick. But Rob Ford needs to be replaced,” calling on voters to “democratically send Mr. Ford out of office.” CBC reported she also took her criticism of him to international media. Ford left the race that September after being hospitalized with an abdominal tumour, and his brother Doug ran in his place. A decade later, in May 2024, Mayor Chow supported renaming Centennial Park Stadium after Rob Ford.

Doug Ford. In the 2023 by-election the premier warned that electing Chow would be an “unmitigated disaster.” Within months they signed the New Deal for Toronto. The province took over the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway and committed $1.2 billion in operating money over three years plus $300 million up front. The city also agreed to let the province proceed with its contested redevelopment of Ontario Place, which includes a private spa and waterpark. Add the province's Ontario Line subway, and the Ford government's footprint in Toronto is large.

The friction never left. Ford's government is removing the Bloor, Yonge and University bike lanes over the city's objections. Chow's response in August: “the premier his first job is to fight Trump,” and bike lanes should be left “to the local community to decide.” Ford has also called city-run grocery stores “the craziest idea.” Then, on 16 September, he said: “The mayor and I have a phenomenal relationship… She's doing an incredible job. So, read between the lines.” His office later said it was not an endorsement.

Read: CBC News · CBC News · Wikipedia · Wikipedia · Global News · CP24 · CP24 · CBC News

Why she's the favourite

  • She has never trailed. Chow has led all 16 published polls since December 2025, against Tory, Ford, Bradford and Alexander in every combination tested.
  • Her number has risen. From 39% in December to 47–50% in every poll since August.
  • Incumbents win here. Every Toronto mayor who sought re-election since amalgamation has won: Lastman in 2000, Miller in 2006, Tory in 2018 and 2022.
  • The premier isn't running against her. Ford called her an “unmitigated disaster” in 2023. In 2026 he says “read between the lines.”
  • A ground game. She's endorsed by CUPE Local 79, LiUNA Local 183 and the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
  1. 2000Mel Lastman80.0%
  2. 2006David Miller57.0%
  3. 2018John Tory63.5%
  4. 2022John Tory62.0%
Read: Wikipedia · Wikipedia · Wikipedia · Wikipedia · Wikipedia · CP24

What could stop her

  • The city is split on her. Approval is 49% against 45% disapproval, slipping from 52/42. Liaison's David Valentin: “a lead can coexist with a much more divided assessment.”
  • Bradford is better liked. The same pollster says his favourability beats hers. His problem is converting that into votes.
  • Taxes and the budget. Her first budget raised property taxes 9.5%, and the Globe reports a city budget hole hanging over the race.
  • The gap moves. CBC reported a six-point lead entering the final month, against nine to eleven in Liaison's latest polls.
  • Turnout is low and volatile. Only 29.2% voted in 2022, the lowest since 1974.
Read: Toronto Life · Wikipedia · The Globe and Mail · CBC News · Wikipedia

Circul8r doesn't endorse candidates. The case for and against are both built from published polls and records, and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

The files

bike lanes · transit · city lore
ElectionVote Mon 26 Oct

Toronto picks a mayor and council on 26 Oct

Olivia Chow is running for re-election against Councillor Brad Bradford, who gave up his Ward 19 seat to run, and former federal minister Chris Alexander, among 65 registered mayoral candidates. All 25 council seats and four school boards' trustees are also on the ballot. Several veteran councillors aren't running again, including Josh Matlow, Paula Fletcher and Gord Perks.

Latest polling

CBC reports Chow up six points heading into the final month. A Liaison Strategies poll from 4–5 Sep had Chow 50%, Bradford 39%, Alexander 10%.

Also new

The province cut Toronto District School Board wards from 22 to 12 for this election.

  1. 1 MayNominations open
  2. 21 AugNominations close
  3. 26 OctElection day
Source: Wikipedia · Wikipedia · CBC News
StreetsRemoval tendered

Bloor, Yonge and University bike lanes cleared for removal

The Ontario Court of Appeal unanimously overturned a July 2025 Superior Court ruling that had found the province's Bill 212 unconstitutional. That lets the Ford government remove about 19 km of bike lanes on Bloor Street, Yonge Street and University Avenue. On 1 Sep the province issued a request for proposals for contractors to start the work.

The province's case

Removal will ease congestion. The law is titled the Reducing Gridlock, Saving You Time Act. The court said there is "no constitutional obligation to build bicycle lanes or to retain any that have been built."

The other side

The lower court had found removal would breach cyclists' Charter right to safety, and the applicants, including Cycle Toronto, may go to the Supreme Court of Canada. The City estimates removal will cost $48 million, and Mayor Chow is negotiating alternatives with the province.

  1. Jul 2025Superior Court strikes down Bill 212 removals
  2. 14 Aug 2026Court of Appeal reverses
  3. 1 Sep 2026Province tenders removal work
Source: NOW Toronto · The Varsity
TransitDelayed

The Ontario Line slips to the early 2030s

The 15.6 km subway from Exhibition Place to the former Ontario Science Centre will have 15 new stations. First announced for 2027, later pushed to 2031, its civil works are now "trending towards the early 2030s", per Metrolinx CEO Michael Lindsay. In February the province broke ground on a three-kilometre elevated stretch through the Don Valley, Flemingdon Park and Thorncliffe Park.

The promise

The province says it will put 30,500 more people within walking distance of transit, cut a Thorncliffe Park to downtown commute from 40 to 25 minutes, and ease Bloor–Yonge crowding by up to 22%.

The caution

Lindsay pointed to Eglinton and Finch: even once construction is done, testing and commissioning take time. Construction at Pape has already rerouted the 8 and 62 buses away from Hennick Bridgepoint Hospital.

  1. 2019–20Announced with a 2027 target
  2. LaterTarget moved to 2031
  3. 18 Feb 2026Elevated section breaks ground
  4. Now"Early 2030s"
Source: CP24 · blogTO · TTC
LoreCity lore

The High Park capybaras, ten years on

In 2016 two capybaras escaped the High Park Zoo and set off a citywide hunt, with sightings reported across Toronto. It took close to a month to round them up, and the mayor of the day, John Tory, publicly applauded the zoo's recapture effort. In 2026 the caper became a video game: Capy Castaway, from indie studios Saffron Aurora and Kitten Cup Studio, has players guide a lost capybara off a replica of the Toronto Islands. It was slated to launch on Steam this summer.

  1. 2016Two capybaras escape; about a month on the run
  2. 1 May 2026Capy Castaway announced
  3. Summer 2026Slated for Steam
Source: CP24 · Global News

Circul8r doesn't endorse candidates or parties. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.